KAN Poll Projects 52 Seats for Opposition Ahead of Israeli Vote

Israrelis will cast ballots on Tuesday in the country's first legislative election since the attacks of October 7, 2023.

The contest is between two broad alliances that are currently deadlocked in projections. A survey by public broadcaster KAN, released before a publication ban took effect on Friday, gives the opposition bloc 52 seats. Netanyahu's coalition is projected to win 50 seats. The remaining 18 seats are expected to go to unaffiliated parties, including the two main Arab-majority lists, Ra'am and the Joint List.

A party must win at least 3.25 percent of the vote to enter the 120-seat parliament. The opposition alliance includes the Yashar party of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats led by Yair Golan, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance joined by opposition leader Yair Lapid. Netanyahu's side is built around his Likud party and includes the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism and Shas, as well as the far-right Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut.

Both major blocs have ruled out partnering with the Arab-led parties for now. That stance could complicate coalition talks and increase the likelihood of a minority government or a return to the polls. Roughly 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote, a figure that includes about 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polls suggest turnout in that community could reach 60 percent. At that level, Arab parties could secure as many as 15 seats. Campaigners are targeting a 70 percent turnout, which would be the highest in decades.

The Supreme Court recently forced Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article describing the October 7 attacks as "an important historical event." The court also reversed a decision by the Central Elections Committee that had barred the Joint List and Ra'am. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said secular and liberal opposition factions view this vote as "the last chance to save Israeli democracy."

Domestic anger is focused on reported security failures and the military exemption granted to the ultra-Orthodox community. Critics also object to Netanyahu's judicial reform efforts. The stakes are personal for the prime minister, who has served for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces corruption charges and a trial that could result in a prison sentence if he is convicted. Netanyahu is also subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes.

Netanyahu has argued that only his Likud party can prevent a partnership with Arab parties. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, said this strategy could keep Netanyahu in office as a caretaker prime minister if no bloc secures a majority. Roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem do not have a vote in this election.

The election follows a period of intense international criticism. Several allies have sanctioned settlements in the occupied West Bank. When Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys walked out, some jeering and booing.